Climate Change Projections
Expected Impact on World Agricultural
The objective of this work is to research climate change which is a critically important issue and is no respecter of person in that it affects all upon the earth, man, beast, fish, fowl, and organism. The water temperature will be affected, the air that is breathed each and every element upon, in and surrounding mother earth will experience collectively the changing of earth’s climate.
The topic of climatic change is one that is ever present on the minds of scientists and meteorologists as well as many others across the globe. Since the melting of the earth’s northern as well as southern polar caps, and the news of 70-foot waves ending luxury cruises, as well as glacier and ice shelf collisions in the news, certainly everyone is slowly but surely becoming aware of the change in the climatic conditions of earth’s biosphere.
Climatologists and Meteorologist Predictions
Climatologists now have stated it is with the realm of “certain probability” that humans absolutely have induced global climatic disturbances resulting in a complete change in current conditions. Furthermore, the affect that has been projected for human health is one stated to be of a nature that is diverse, “unpredictable in magnitude” and slow in emerging. Specifically stated is that the “Adverse effects are likely to outweigh beneficial effect substantially” (McMichaels, et al. eds., 2004) However the changes that may be witnessed sooner rather than later are those experienced from the affects of agricultural production difficulties and disasters and mass failure of crops due to unforeseen tragedy and destruction within the earth’s biosphere.
Agricultural Issues
The predictions are gloomy in view of earth’s agricultural outlook. Demands for food have risen in recent years and many people die daily due to starvation in third world developing countries. More land is being cultivated each year and there are those stating the fact that this only puts “more pressure on natural ecosystems.” The agricultural crop yield will be affected in a direct manner due to “alterations in temperature and rainfall,” as well as “indirectly through changes in soil quality, pests, and diseases” Specifically stated is that the cereal yield is expected to witness a “decline in India, Africa and the Middle East. EduGreen Online, 2005)
Further stated in the World Health Organization and World Meteorological Association collaborative report is:
“The potential impacts of climate change upon agricultural productivity. while temperature increases and soil moisture changes, and shifts in patterns of plant pest and diseases, could lead to decreases in agricultural productivity, carbon dioxide fertilization could lead to some increases in agricultural productivity. But regional variations in gains and losses would probably result in a slight overall decrease in world cereal productivity. Decreases would be most likely in regions that are already food-insecure.” (McMichaels, et al. eds., 2004)
The World Health Organization states that possible changes are elements such as:”extreme weather events, heatwaves, floods, storms and droughts, heavy precipitation events (leading to increased flooding).” (WHO, 2005) Also mentioned as probable were conditions of starvation, as well as widespread incidence of psychological and social disorders.” The aspects of sea levels rising would be a great loss in agricultural land and fisheries as well, freshwater will become salineated and storm surges are also expected. Furthermore predictions of exposure to ultraviolet radiation (UVR) with the perpetuation of increase in levels is projected to have “adverse effects on biomass production, and hence on human food production, although the magnitude of such effects is uncertain.” (McMichaels, et al. eds., 2004)
Furthermore, the earth’s passage through the Oort Cloud in our solar system has increase surges in solar x-rays and objects entering earth’s atmosphere and burning out as entrance occurs which increases the heat of earth’s biosphere. The good news, indeed if any exists is that there are mitigation strategies that, if properly applied and if done so quickly enough might ease the changing through which the earth passes somewhat.
Worst Case Scenario Stated
Stated to be the worst-case scenario is stated to be as is listed in the following chart labeled Figure 2.0 below:
Figure 2.0
Source: http://www.gcrio.org/gwcc/booklet2.html
The following chart labeled 2.1 shows the alternate or best-case scenario:
Figure 2.1
Source: http://www.gcrio.org/gwcc/booklet2.html
Mitigation Strategies Explored
The work entitled “Food, Agriculture, and Climate Change: The U.S. And International Outlook (USGCRP, 1997) ask the question in relation to addresses the “projected climate changes” and how they “affect agriculture, food resources and the availability of food in the U.S., and the availability of food in the U.S., and globally, over the next 25, 50, and 100 years?” (Woteki, 2002) It is further stated by Woteki (2002) that the following can be expected to result from the conditions brought about by climate change:
Global climate change is projected to have significant regional impacts on agriculture and the production of food and fiber for human use and consumption. Greenhouse warming is one of the complex factors that will shape global food production in the coming century, as the world faces the challenge of feeding a rapidly growing population, which is projected to double from 5.7 billion to over 10 billion by the middle of the next century. Through changes in temperature, water regimes, and carbon dioxide (CO2) levels, global climate change will directly affect crops, soils, pests, and livestock. Both producers and consumers, within the United States and abroad, will experience the impacts of these changes. Farmers can respond to many of the direct effects of climate change by adjusting their practices, while food-buyers may find variations in the quantity, quality, and prices of produce in their local markets. The challenge for the world agricultural enterprise is not only to feed the growing population in the face of changing climate conditions, but to do so while preserving the rich resources of land and water on which we and future generations depend.”
The IPCC or the Intergovernmental Panel in Climate Change, Second Assessment Report concludes that the production of agricultural appears to be globally sustainable in view of climatic shifts as “predicted by the global climate models (GCMs) for doubled-CO2 equilibrium scenarios. Stated is, “Current research suggests that the transient nature of climate change, potential alterations in climate extremes, and differential regional responses may temper positive outcomes.” (Woteki, 2002) Approximately one quarter of the nation’s agricultural crops and livestock is produced in the Midwest. The marginal changes in climate may produce impacts that are “disproportionately large” which are stated to be possible to, “severely diminish the comparative advantage of farmers and ranchers in the region and further stress irrigation water supplies.
Comparative advantages affected are stated as, “the ability of the agricultural research establishment to promote technical progress that increases farm productivity and reduces environmental damages, the relative growth of scientifically based agriculture in developing countries (e.g., Argentina, Brazil, Vietnam) that increasingly compete with Great Plains farmers, and the occurrence of extreme climate variations in the Great Plains that either stress or benefit farmers there relative to their competitors.”
Summary
It is clear that threat from climate change are real and that warnings should be heeded by humankind. There are many organizations, agencies and corporations that claim to have the answer to climate change in relation to solutions of agriculture. However, the one sure factor is that man has no control over the conditions resulting from climate change, at least not ultimately but the adaptational aspects that present opportunity to humankind are those that should be eagerly initiated as the earth changes and the entirety of existence of life on earth changes as well.
Works Cited
McMichaels, et al., eds. (2002) Climate Change and Human Health Executive Summary (2002) An Assessment Prepared by World Health Organization Taskgroup in Collaboration with World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environment Programme/U.S. Climate Change Science Program / U.S. Global Change Research Program, Tuesday 20 June 2002 Suite 250, 1717 Pennsylvania Ave, NW, Washington, DC Online available at: http://www.us gcrp .gov/usgcrp/WHO/WHOEXEC.html
Climate Change (2005) Online Retrieved from the Internet 05-04-05.
http://edugreen.teri.res.in/explore/climate/climate.htm .
Woteki, Catherine (2002) Food, Agriculture, and Climate Change: The U.S. And International Outlook USGCRP Seminar, 7 January 1997 U.S. Climate Change Science Program / U.S. Global Change Research Program, Online available at: http: / / www.usgcrp.gov/usgcrp/seminars/9717DD.html.
More On “If climate changes, what might happen?” Online available at: http://www.gcrio.org/gwcc/booklet2.html
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